Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Hot Flat and Crowded Chapter 1: Where Birds don't Fly TF point is the US reaction to 9-11 has created isolation which is hurting us. The freeflow of business, tourism, ideas is reduced in terms of our interactions while overseas and foreigners in the us. Esp. in the Arab world which is distancing from our friends. The problem is the world is getting Hot, Flat and Crowded. Hot= Global Warming Flat=The Growing Middle Class Crowded= Rapid population growth The books theme In particular, the convergence of hot, flat, and crowded is tightening energy supplies, intensifying the extinction of plants and animals, deepening energy poverty, strengthening petrodictatorship, and accelerating climate change Three trends 9-11 fence building Dumb as we wanna be policies- red vs blue fighting, subprime lending Nation building at home - grass route energy Washington Environmentalism was a bipartisan issue. Reagan reduced budget of National Solar Energy Lab now NREL . Todays average car mileage is equal to ten years ago per the Pew Foundation. In 2020, the CAFE is moving us to 35 mpg which is where Japan is today. Amory Lovins of Rocky Mountain Institute says when Regan rolled back CAFE it was like undiscovering the Artic Reserve. If the auto industry did not lobby for low taxes on gas there would not be a demand for SUV's. What is good for GM is not necessarily good for the US. Denmark decided to do taxes and Premium gas is 9 bucks a gallon. Since 81 the economy has grown to 1981 has grown 70 percent and energy usage has remained the same. Solar and wind is 16% of the energy of Denmark. 1/3 of the wind turbines come from Denmark. Danisco and Novozymes both come from Denmark. In 77 , Denmark gets 99 percent of their energy from the middle east but now gets none. Today's China is building infrastructure more modern than the US asked quoted by Zakaria . The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be Valery Imagine how many people would enlist at Nation Building at home. We need to continually rebuild ourselves by David Rothkopf . Green is not simply a new form of generating electrical power. it is a new form of generating national power--period. The America we would like to see..(gives a bunch of examples) Chapter 2: Today's Date E.C.E 1 Today's weather Hot, Flat and Crowded Flat as defined by his World is Flat:Technical Revolution is leveling the global economic playing field and enabling more people to compete, connect and colaborate having a huge impact on economics,politics , milatary, and social affairs. 2 other factors global warming and soaring population growth five key problems: (that the book describes) 1)the growing demand for ever scarcer energy supplies and natural resources 2) a massive transfer of wealth to oil-rich countries and their petrodictators 3) disruptive climate change 4) energy poverty, which is sharply dividing the world into electricity haves and electricity have-nots 5) rapidly accelerating biodiversity loss, as plants and animals go extinct at record rates If we are going to solve these problems we need New tools New infrastructure new ways of thinking new ways of colaborating with others This is stuff which great new industries, scientific breakthroughs and propelling some nations ahead. 2.6 billion in the world in 53 and in 2053 world pop estimated 9.2 billion (5.4 billion now). 2.3 million people annually move from nondeveloped to developed countries. In 1800, London was the largest city with a million in 1960 ,111 cities with one million 1995 380 cities now over 300 Megacities 10 million 5 in 75 14 in 95 26 in 2015 This has also made the world flatter Technology-- desktop publishing, broadcasting -the internet- software and transmission - the workflow revolution Geopolitical- Collapse of Communism and the Berlin wallcreates a global marketplace The end of Communism lifted 200million people out of abject poverty in the 80's and 90's in China and India alone. according to the IMF in the next 12 years, we expect another billion people. if we gave them each a 60 watt lightbulb we would need 20 50 mgwat coal plants. (pointed out by Dave douglas of Sun) http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/01/dave_douglas_vi.php An energy chemist California Institute of Technology, Nate Lewis, analogy “ Imagine you are driving in your car and every mile you drive you throw a pound of trash out your window. And everyone else on the freeway in their cars and trucks is doing the exact same thing, and people driving Hummers are throwing two bags out at a time – one out the driver-side window and one out the passenger-side window. We are throwing out is a pound of CO2 – that’s what goes into the atmosphere, on average, every mile we drive.” Deforestation in places like Brazil and Indonesia are responsible for the 20 % of the c02 more that all the transportation combined. Methane- released from rice farming, oil drilling, coal mining, animal defecation, cow belching. 21 times stronger than c02 in ghg. average cow 600 liters a day. 1.3 billion cows is the world pop. Fuels from Heaven vs Fuels from Hell Andy Karsner- DOE- We built the greatest ineffecient environment with the greatest efficentcy known to mankind. energy chemist California Institute of Technology, Nate Lewis analogy “Imagine you are driving in your car and every mile you drive you throw a pound of trash out your window. And everyone else on the freeway in their cars and trucks is doing the exact same thing, and people driving Hummers are throwing two bags out at a time – one out the driver-side window and one out the passenger-side window. we are throwing out is a pound of CO2 – that’s what goes into the atmosphere, on average, every mile we drive.” deforesting of places like Indonesia and Brazil creates more co2 than all the transportation -20% of all global emissions. Methane CH4 is a bad ghg from rice farming, oil drilling, coal mining, animal defecation, waste sites and cattle belching. There are 1.3 billion cows in the world. Methane from livestock is a major ghg source. Pew Center studies GHG. Electric Power Research Institute studies. Peter Verleger Energy Economist notes global energy consumption grew 5% from 51 to 70. China and India growing like post WWII. Royal Dutch Shell thinks that all energy consumption will double by 2050.